Escape from Camp 14

背景：東西網：逃離朝鮮勞改營
最近的床頭書之一：Escape from Camp 14 , 講述北韓人Shin出生在北韓勞改集中營生存及逃亡的自傳，Amazon讀者對本書的評語（目前維持將近五顆星滿分評價）都是：自打開第一頁就無法放下，令人想要一口氣讀完。北韓的集中營極度近似最近很紅的小說及改編電影『飢餓遊戲 Hunger Games』，只是小說裡被壓迫的人民終於起身反抗，但現實世界中的集中營，只有26人成功逃出到自由世界。外界對北韓的古拉格毫無所悉或無動於衷。

逃出14號集中營的內容過於震撼，以至於我讀完之後有三四天食不知味，夜裡也睡不安穩。就像經濟學人編輯所下的小標題，北韓古拉格的存在令全世界人類蒙羞（shame the whole world）。下圖為人造衛星空照圖：14及18號集中營（來源：經濟學人四月21日）

Escape from Camp 14作者 Blaine Harden 認為北韓所有恫嚇的舉動：發射飛彈，核武測試，挑釁南韓軍隊及這種口頭上的威脅都是刻意製造的煙霧效果，一切都是為了掩蓋北韓境內的種種反人類罪行及維持共產黨政權統治的合法性。

茲列舉幾項Shin 講述北韓集中營的事情：
挑戰金氏王朝的處罰是三代一起送進古拉格，飢餓 輪姦 酷刑 父子母女自相殘殺是基本生活常態；Shin小時候告密導致母親和哥哥在他面前被處決時，他當時覺得很高興，因為以後就沒有人跟他搶食物了。集中營有十條戒律，違反者當場槍斃,，營區的周圍是高壓電圍牆/籬笆，試圖逃跑者沒有被電死也會重傷(飢餓遊戲真實版)。

即使成功生還逃出北韓，Shin在中國及南韓以至於後來抵達美國的生活都面臨另一種試煉及煎熬。他是目前為止唯一一個在集中營出生並逃出的北韓奴隸。

就國際地位及與中國美國日本的三國角力，北韓及台灣在國際關係上其實是雙生兄弟，中國共產黨也絕對不會放棄對於北韓及台灣的控制。中國政府加強控制北韓及台灣背後的動機也是為了要維持對於中國國內統治的正當性。北韓為共產主義模範，台灣為民主轉型模範，若是台灣人民以民主選舉的方式對國際宣示向中國靠攏，中國共產黨可藉此向國際及國內證明，即使是民主的台灣也願意選擇中國。

關心北韓的人權狀況，某種程度上也算是關心台灣未來的命運。

本書作者在序裡提到世人對於北韓的了解趨近於零，其中一個原因是北韓沒有代表性人物在國際上發聲，緬甸有翁山蘇姬，Tibet有達賴喇嘛尊者，南非有曼德拉，南蘇丹甚至有好萊塢明星代言。但北韓除了金氏三代，其他人無人知曉。他花了很長一段時間說服Shin接受採訪並將他的故事首次於2009年報導在華盛頓郵報首頁上，獲得了許多回響。美國許多人捐款並願意收養Shin讓他來美國重新開始。現在Shin居住在華盛頓州，並與一位韓國後裔女性交往中。本書的出版希望可以讓更多人知道北韓政權的邪惡及慘無人道。

China's Economy and Top 25 economics blogs

I am trying to be not so biased about China in every way. So, recently I've paid attention on China's stimulus package and its impact on the world economy. Just as Marx said that economy is the base infrastructure of the society; today it's probably even the common shared language for international relations and foreign policies.

It seems to work pretty well this far. There are a lot of positive reports coming out these two days, though I am still suspicious for China's government reports, it's still a sign. What's the short-term and long-term effect on the cross-trait relation? How should we, Taiwanese, deal with the surging pressure of unification?

Financial Times: China on track to meet GDP targets. (link1)

Economist: China's recovery. (link2)

The New Republic: Chinese save the world? (link3)

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Here's WSJ's latest ranking of economic blogs. (link4)

How to read those blogs? (link5)

Debates on Causal Inference

Assorted links on causal inference

I've been reading articles and books on this topic and it makes me rethink why I decide to devout myself into the stats world. The debates are still going on and we can see several big names making great comments. Thanks to Prof. Gelman and technology, we don't have to travel across the country to listen to the inspirational lectures.

All starts from Andrew Gelman's blog entries and still continues.

1. Revolving disputes between J. Pearl and D. Rubin on causal inference (link1)
2. More on Pearl's and Rubin's framework for causal inference (link2) (link3)

3. Causal inference and Bayesian (link4)

4. Prof. J. Pearl's response (link5)

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Recently I've started learning some Bayesian methods, and it's always fun to learn something new. But I have doubts on several issues especially about causal inference. One of the common critiques on Bayesian methods is the concern of making up data, but it's not a real issue for me. The main concern lies in making up causality from probability.

I am still new to Bayesian methods and will keep on reading more related articles to figure it out.

How about Neurosociology?

It turns out that I am not the only one who have the idea about putting neuroscience and sociology together. Here's the brilliant must-read blog entry: Neurosociology.

Economists have collaborated with cognitive science for a while, for example, behavioral economics, how about Sociologists? I guess when it comes to the conjunction of biology and sociology that sociologists will be highly suspicious of social Darwinism. But doesn’t brain function matter in social life?

There's an article on Economists that said Martha Farah at U of Penn worked with neurologists on the effects of poverty during childhood on the development of depression in later period. It implied that poverty at early age will have negative affect on the brain function especially on emotional expressions. (Link to the article) In a nutshell, poverty might be one of the causes of depression. It is good to see clash between sociology and neuroscience, and I expect more related research to come. What other possible research question may arise?
From micro-perspective, the social interactionism, Dramaturgy, decision making, learned helplessness, violence and so on.

Macro-perspective: how inequality and stratification sustain? How does the brain/individual/community cope with less advantageous situation?

Here comes a concern, be careful of the argument about if there are differences between male and female brain functions. Because most of the time social scientists, especially economists, borrow ideas directly from neuroscience fields without realizing the ideology of racism and sexism buried in scientific languages.

Assorted Links and Notes

This blog will mainly play as my everyday notes on readings and to keep track some interesting ongoing topics, especially on methodology stuff.